Supply and demand is arguably the most fundamental principle of real estate markets. About 18 months ago, we wrote on this same topic, but an update seems timely. As a refresher: increasing supply puts downward pressure on values, while rising demand drives them upward. The balance between these two forces shapes the market.
PAST
In Bend’s multifamily sector, supply and demand have a direct impact on both rental rates and property values. From the aftermath of the Great Recession (around 2011) to 2022, Central Oregon faced a severe housing shortage, both for single-family and multifamily units. This shortage was driven by two key factors: the slowdown or near halt of development during the Great Recession (affecting supply) and rapid population growth (driving demand).
The COVID-19 pandemic further intensified these issues, spurring a significant in-migration to Central Oregon and once again stalling development. Supply and demand were drastically imbalanced. The result? Skyrocketing rental rates, nearly zero vacancies, and substantial increases in property values—a boon for landlords and property owners, but a challenge for tenants and homebuyers.
PRESENT
Another fundamental principle of business is change. Markets never go straight up or straight down forever. Developers responded to the housing shortage on a massive scale, with thousands of new multifamily units constructed in Central Oregon over the past few years. Many of these units are now just coming online and entering the lease-up phase.
At the same time, population growth has slowed, partly due to the high cost and limited availability of housing, resulting in decreased demand. These trends are now reflecting in the market. Rent growth has stagnated, and in some cases, rents may even be declining. Significant concessions are being offered, vacancy rates have increased, and units are staying vacant much longer—sometimes weeks or even months.
The combined impact of oversupply and rising interest rates has also driven down the market value of multifamily properties. In some areas of the country, property values have decreased by over 20%. While Central Oregon remains a desirable destination to live and invest, the market here hasn’t been immune to these trends, though the decline is likely less severe.
FUTURE
Looking ahead, the wave of new apartment developments will hit the brakes. Several proposed projects have already been shelved. The biggest question mark for the future is population growth. If population growth remains robust, the market could stabilize in the next year or two, with vacancy rates returning to a more typical range of around 5%. Rent rates will likely remain flat, at best, for the next couple of years.
For property values to rise again, we will need to see both increasing rents and declining interest rates.
In the world of real estate, the balancing act of supply and demand is never perfect—that’s what makes the market dynamic. Let’s see what the next cycle brings.
The Compass Commercial Multifamily Brokerage Team specializes in Central Oregon multifamily properties of all sizes and types from duplexes to 200+ units. Contact us today for a free Broker Opinion of Value on your property.