Our team participated in a webinar last month from Brian and Alan Beaulieu at ITR Economics, providing economic insights for the coming years. In summary, the webinar presented some encouraging points. The macro economy is doing well. The oil industry is depressed. Real GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is continuing to rise.
The election results did not change their forecast significantly as ITR Economics has been consistent in their predictions well before the election. According to ITR’s models, they anticipate a slight downturn in the second half of 2018 and the first half of 2019. However, there is an estimated 14 years to prepare before a significant downturn estimated to happen in 2030. During this time, it is projected for plenty of opportunities for wealth building.
Compass Commercial broker Ron Ross shared his thoughts on how this applies to commercial real estate in Central Oregon. He stated, “It will continue to be a market with shortages. Housing, office space, and industrial space continue to be in short supply. The strong recovery being experienced in Central Oregon will continue to put enormous pressure on the supply of real estate driving prices higher, (both lease rates and property values). On the upside, it will continue to be a strong landlord and seller market. This could be a great time to sell real estate in this strong seller’s market. Rising interest rates will eventually impact the market and potentially cap rates, but lease rates should continue to rise, hopefully offsetting the rate effect.”
In a recent blog, ITR Economics reinforced that the overall outlook is good for 2017. They state, “The good news for the economy continues to come in. We have leading indicators that are going up. Corporate profits are on the rise. GDP is growing at a faster pace. Housing activity is strong and industrial activity is starting to recover.”
If you’re interested in reading more, ITR Economics recommended reading:
“Creating Competitive Advantage” by Jaynie Smith
“Prosperity in The Age of Decline: How to Lead Your Business and Preserve Wealth Through the Coming Business Cycles” by Brian Beaulieu and Alan Beaulieu